War Insurance for Gulf Events Shrinks as Saudi Calendar Slips

Only one insurer, possibly two on very limited terms, will consider war-risk cover for Gulf events, as underwriting capacity for those policies has fallen from about $1 billion to $200 million.

Marsh Middle East and Africa’s Panteha Peters, head of sports, entertainment, media and special risks, said the limited market reviews exposure case by case, usually no earlier than about one week before the event. That leaves organizers little time to secure replacement coverage if security deteriorates or a cancellation looms.

What has changed in the insurance market?

Organizers can still insure event cancellation for bad weather, a declared period of national mourning or an information-technology failure. War-risk cover, meaning protection against cancellation linked to war or political violence, sits outside standard cancellation policies, so buyers normally purchase it as a separate layer.

Since the U.S.-Iran war began in late February, that separate cover has become close to unobtainable for Gulf events. Organizers increasingly postpone events or retain the cancellation risk themselves.

“Only one insurer, possibly two on very limited terms, is currently willing to consider war exposure for events in the region,” Peters said. Underwriters also wait until close to the event, leaving little room to rebuild a canceled event’s commercial plan.

Takeaway: Ordinary cancellation cover remains available, but the war-risk layer has almost disappeared.

How much more expensive has war risk become?

Marsh said in May that Gulf political-violence premiums had risen at least 20-fold since the war began. Morningstar DBRS’s Marcos Alvarez said brokers reported rate increases of as much as 50-fold immediately after the first attacks on Iran.

Marsh’s figures are broker estimates, while Morningstar cites reports from brokers; neither provides an audited total for every underwriter. Still, the movement from $1 billion to $200 million in capacity, alongside premiums rising at least twentyfold, shows a sharp contraction in available risk-bearing options.

Standard cancellation insurance tells a different story. Pricing for that cover has generally remained stable this year, Gallagher’s Yasmin Dacuycuy said. The squeeze therefore sits specifically in the war layer, not the broader cancellation market.

Events that proceed may carry lower limits and more exclusions; some carry no cancellation insurance at all. That leaves organizers, rather than insurers, bearing more of the financial exposure.

Takeaway: The pressure is specific to war and political violence, not the broader cancellation insurance market.

Why has Saudi Arabia’s calendar taken the hit?

Saudi Arabia is the immediate pressure point. Organizers have canceled, postponed or moved each event below, although the available reporting does not specify which treatment applies to each.

• Future Investment Initiative conference
• EU-Gulf summit
• Intersec Saudi Arabia 2026
• Saudi Retail Forum
• 2027 Dakar Rally
• Saudi International golf tournament
• Red Sea Film Festival
• Riyadh Fashion Week

Alvarez linked the change to the Houthi missile and drone campaign on Riyadh, Abha and Dammam in October. He said it “turned war from a theoretical exclusion into a live, priced peril.”

Takeaway: The disruption is already changing Saudi Arabia’s event schedule rather than remaining an abstract insurance concern.

What does this mean for travel sellers?

No booking, arrival, hotel-occupancy or commission figures accompany these changes, so the revenue effect remains unquantified. For travel sellers, the likely commercial channel is event-linked accommodation, transport and delegate travel: a cancellation removes travel dates, while a postponement or move shifts inventory and cash collection.

Lower limits, more exclusions and instances of no cancellation insurance shift exposure from insurers to organizers. Events that continue still carry cancellation exposure, now largely with organizers rather than insurers. Their travel commitments therefore remain less certain, even though ordinary cancellation-cover pricing has stayed broadly stable.

Case-by-case decisions close to the event also change distribution mechanics. Sellers may need to hold room and transport inventory longer, reprice late and manage changing departure dates. No data quantify resulting changes in airline seat sales, hotel nights, destination spend or intermediaries’ market share.

Takeaway: Sellers face delayed commitments and uncertain inventory, but no measured booking or commission loss is available.

The next checkpoint is whether insurers restore meaningful capacity before postponed events return. Until coverage broadens beyond one or two underwriters, postponement and self-insurance remain the practical alternatives.