Tui has narrowed its full-year operating profit guidance to between €1.2 billion and €1.3 billion (£1.02 billion to £1.11 billion), lifting the bottom of its previous €1.1–1.4 billion range after a late-summer pickup in bookings.

The German-owned tour operator, reporting on Tuesday 22 September, said markets and airlines bookings remain under pressure overall: summer volumes fell 7% in the UK and 2% in Germany. Winter looks weaker still, with bookings down 9% in the UK and 4% in Germany — its two largest source markets.

What changed in the last four weeks?

Momentum has shifted. Tui said bookings improved over the past month, rising 2% for summer holidays, while winter declines narrowed to 1%. Travellers continue to make holiday decisions at the last minute, a pattern that compresses the selling window for agents and operators alike.

The company framed the winter picture cautiously. "With demand still largely focused on the summer season, early indications for the new winter season point to a continuation of the later booking environment against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty," Tui said.

It added: "In this environment, we continue to carefully manage capacity, retaining the flexibility to adjust capacity in line with customer demand."

Can pricing offset volume declines?

So far, yes. "Average selling prices continue to hold up well, reflecting the strength of our product proposition," the group said — meaning revenue per booking is doing part of the work that volume is not.

Cost cutting and firm pricing are helping Tui offset soaring fuel costs caused by the Iran war, according to the company. That margin defense underpins the raised floor of the profit guidance, though the narrowed range also cuts the previous €1.4 billion upper bound.

Where is demand actually going?

Summer demand concentrated on short and medium-haul destinations, led by Greece and Spain, including the Balearics and the Canaries. For winter, Tui expects the Canaries, Spain, Egypt and Cape Verde to carry the programme, with long-haul demand focused on Thailand, Mexico and the Dominican Republic.

For sellers of travel, the takeaway is a market still transacting — but later, shorter and closer to home, with the operator holding pricing while it flexes capacity. Tui said it will keep managing capacity against demand as the winter booking curve develops.