Tui has narrowed its full-year operating profit guidance to €1.2bn (£1.02bn)–€1.3bn (£1.11bn), from a previous range of €1.1bn (£940m)–€1.4bn (£1.2bn), after a late-summer pickup in bookings across its two largest markets.

The German-owned travel group reported that markets and airlines bookings remain under pressure overall: summer bookings fell 7 per cent in the UK and 2 per cent in Germany. Winter bookings are down 9 per cent in the UK and 4 per cent in Germany.

The trend of the past four weeks, however, turned positive. Summer bookings rose 2 per cent, and winter booking declines narrowed to 1 per cent.

What is driving the late demand shift?

Tui said travellers continue to make holiday decisions at the last minute, with demand concentrated on the summer season. "Early indications for the new winter season point to a continuation of the later booking environment against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty," the group said.

That uncertainty includes the fuel cost shock triggered by the Iran war, which Tui said it is offsetting through cost cutting and by holding prices firm.

"Average selling prices continue to hold up well, reflecting the strength of our product proposition," the company added.

How is Tui managing capacity?

The operator said it is keeping flexibility in its programme rather than committing to fixed volumes. "In this environment, we continue to carefully manage capacity, retaining the flexibility to adjust capacity in line with customer demand," Tui said.

For sellers of travel, the capacity discipline signals tighter inventory rather than distressed pricing — a stance reinforced by the group's insistence that average selling prices are holding.

Which destinations are carrying demand?

Summer demand centred on short and medium-haul destinations:

• Greece and Spain, including the Balearics and the Canaries

For winter, Tui expects volume to concentrate on:

• The Canaries, Spain, Egypt and Cape Verde
• Long-haul: Thailand, Mexico and the Dominican Republic

The guidance narrowing — cutting the bottom of the range by €100m while trimming the top — reflects a peak season that performed toward the middle of expectations despite the geopolitical backdrop. Tui said cost cutting and firm pricing are offsetting the impact of soaring fuel costs, and it will continue adjusting capacity in line with demand as the later-booking environment persists into winter.