The Mediterranean cruise basin handled roughly six million passengers in 2025, and Nikos Metzanidis, executive director for Europe at Cruise Lines International Association, told delegates at Seatrade Cruise Med in Las Palmas on Tuesday that "there are glimpses of growth also in 2026."

Metzanidis was one of five operators on CLIA's "State of the Mediterranean Cruise Industry: Raising Expectations" panel, moderated by Mary Bond, group portfolio director at Seatrade Cruise. The panel sat alongside a keynote from CLIA CEO Bud Darr and an opening address from MedCruise president Theodora Riga.

What does the $96bn orderbook mean for sellers?

Darr used his keynote to put a price tag on the future pipeline. The industry orderbook represents approximately $96bn in newbuild commitments extending beyond 2036, with more than 80 ships on order, the bulk in European yards. For travel sellers, that translates into new distribution inventory that will arrive annually through the end of the 2030s, with most growth occurring in mid-size capacity rather than at the megaship end of the range.

"The idea that vessels are uniformly getting bigger is just not true," Darr said. "Growth is happening across all industry segments."

Why is MedCruise asking for a metrics overhaul?

Riga, president of MedCruise, opened the main panel by challenging how the industry measures success, arguing that annual passenger counts no longer answer the right question. CLIA's latest figures put global passenger movements at 39.75 million.

"For many years, our industry has asked a relatively simple question: how much can we grow?" Riga said. "Success is creating something else: expectation."

MedCruise is conducting economic impact assessments across the region with AIVP and Port City Compass, with Riga's framing of value distribution laid out directly: "not how many passengers arrived – it's how far the value travelled," extending to taxi drivers, restaurants and shore-side suppliers that travel sellers increasingly package into cruise extensions.

How are deployment decisions changing?

Operators on the panel described deployment reviews as more frequent than ever, driven by both itinerary logistics and geopolitical risk.

• Celestyal Cruises will operate year-round in both eastern and western Mediterranean with Adriatic operations in summer, offering 3-, 4-, 7-, 14- and 22-day rotations.
• MSC Group will deploy MSC Euribia to Las Palmas next winter for Canary Islands cruises, replacing MSC Fantasia and extending the season.
• AIDA Cruises is expanding its fleet from 11 ships, with two new vessels joining in 2030-31, designed to be "really smart ships, more efficient ships" rather than taller.

"The need to be geopolitically agile," said Celestyal CEO Chris Theophilides. "We find the deployment reviews being more common and more frequent."

What is the fuel situation?

Darr's central decarbonisation argument centred on supply rather than ambition. Without molecules, he argued, targets become rhetoric: "Without the molecules it doesn't happen – it's just a bunch of smoke and mirrors."

The multi-fuel fleet is building accordingly: 31 ships operating multi-fuel engines by 2026, rising to 69 ships by 2039. Non-HFO fuel usage has climbed from 26% in 2019 to 40% in 2025, and shore-power-capable ships have tripled since 2018. Most ships, representing 84% of capacity, can now produce 100% of their freshwater needs onboard.

An internal MedCruise study presented in Las Palmas found 90% of member ports will have shore power supply projects in place by 2030, though Riga stressed these are works underway rather than completed installations.

What stands in the way of year-round Mediterranean cruising?

Riga recounted a December panel where a cruise line complained about a port's summer shade infrastructure at 40°C, while the same port in December offered "perfect 22°C weather, everything open, 2,500 years of history — and almost nothing on the berth."

AIDA's experience in northern Europe offers a template. Two AIDA ships now operate in northern waters during winter — something the line "never ever would have expected this could work" five or ten years ago — built through narrative rather than marketing, replacing perceptions of harsh conditions with "a story of coziness, of hygge culture, of snow."

MSC's Europe trajectory was cited as direct evidence: from one 2,000-passenger ship 25 years ago to six ships deployed this winter. "Having customers all year round is very strategic," said Leonardo Massa, MSC Group's VP Southern Europe for cruise.

What regulatory files matter most?

Metzanidis warned that Brussels is reviewing most of the established framework. "Fit for 55 — what we knew back in 2019 — is all up for review. Everything is being reviewed." That includes the alternative fuels infrastructure regulation, the Renewable Energy Directive and the Emissions Trading System review, where he counted an early win: the European Commission proposal already contains mechanisms to bridge price gaps between alternative and conventional fuels.

The industry awaits the European Sustainable Tourism Strategy, which Metzanidis hopes will feature cruise as an example of well-managed tourism.

Riga framed the structural problem as tempo: "Cruise lines move at a much faster pace; ports can move at a much slower pace," with infrastructure projects facing obsolescence risk unless built to 30-year horizons. Steffi Heinicke, SVP guest experience and onboard revenue at AIDA, asked destinations to expand shore power and supporting facilities so new ships can use what they already carry.

Guest expectations, the panel agreed, now benchmark against hotels and theme parks rather than other cruise lines. Samantha Stimpson, CEO of Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines, was blunt on community relations: "There is a real requirement for us to do better," noting the line is "more welcome in some destinations than in others."

Seatrade Cruise Med runs September 16-17 in Las Palmas.