US-Europe Demand Holds at Record Levels as Canada Reroutes

U.S. trips to Europe fell only about 1% in July from a record 2025 peak, while Canadian travel to the U.S. dropped more than 23% and Canadian trips to Europe grew. Those diverging corridors framed this year's Skift Transatlantic Summit, where operators, tourism boards and investors agreed that North American demand for Europe is holding up — but is becoming more selective and more fragmented.

Skift Advisory's Iva Kutle Škrlec presented the arrivals data. The 1% dip matters less than the shape of demand around it. September already outdrew August for U.S. arrivals to Europe last year, she noted, signaling a shift into shoulder months that sellers can price and package against.

How strong is the underlying demand?

Strong, but value-conscious. Ailish Campbell of Mastercard said 92% of U.S. consumers plan to spend the same or more on travel than a year ago. The tension: they are weighing that spend against thinner discretionary income.

Ireland shows what that means in practice. Tourism Ireland's Alice Mansergh reported North American volume up 5% and spending up 10%. Yet a third of surveyed consumers said conditions feel too uncertain, and more than half want flexible or refundable bookings. Cancellation and refund terms are now a conversion lever, not an afterthought.

Which way is traffic splitting?

Policy friction has become an operating issue, not a talking point. Maja Bakran Marcich of the European Commission said biometric entry/exit queues "are here to stay." Sellers should plan processing time into itineraries rather than treat the queues as temporary.

The inbound story is worse. Greg O'Hara, founder of private equity firm Certares, said European visitor numbers into the U.S. have collapsed over the past two years. Canadian demand, down more than 23% to the U.S., is redirecting toward Europe instead.

The calendar is moving faster than the map. Aer Lingus's Reid Moody expects the big gateway cities to hold most transatlantic capacity through 2030. Dispersal talk, in other words, has not yet moved seats.

Where is distribution breaking?

Two gaps stood out.

• AI planning versus destination readiness: Sojern's Sylvia Weiler said more than half of travelers now use AI in trip planning, while only about a quarter of destinations have a published AI strategy. Suppliers that lack machine-readable content risk losing the discovery layer.
• Rail's retail problem: O'Hara said Certares has committed about $2.3 billion to European and UK high-speed rail (the intercity trains competing with short-haul flights). Yet selling a train ticket through an agent or an OTA (online travel agency) is "almost impossible," he said. The capital is committed; the distribution rails are not.

What should sellers take from it?

The transatlantic corridor is durable but fragmenting by nationality, by month and by channel. U.S. demand remains near record highs; Canadian and European inbound to the U.S. does not. Shoulder-month capacity and refundable-fare demand are the near-term revenue levers, and rail's $2.3 billion bet will only pay off if agents and OTAs can finally sell the tickets. Aer Lingus's capacity outlook through 2030 suggests gateway-city inventory, and its pricing power, will outlast the dispersal narrative.