U.S. Travel Consideration Falls to 24% as Japan Closes Gap, Brand USA Data Shows

U.S. consideration among long-haul travelers has fallen from 30% in 2019 to 24% year to date in 2026, while Japan climbed to 23% and finished ahead of the U.S. in both August and October 2026, according to new Brand USA research presented at the destination marketing organization's board meeting Tuesday.

The numbers mark a structural shift in how the U.S. competes for international demand. In January of last year, the U.S. led Japan by more than eight percentage points as the top destination. That gap has since closed and, in two months of 2026, reversed.

"We still lead year to date, but Japan is now our most direct competitor for the long-haul international traveler," said Chelsea Benitez, senior director of research and analytics at Brand USA.

What Is Driving the Decline?

The survey polls roughly 11,000 people each month across 11 key markets: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, India, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. Respondents cited two deterrents in equal measure:

• Cost, named by 24% of travelers.
• The political climate, also cited by 24%.
• A further 23% said they want to visit other countries first.

Overall demand for international travel remains intact. Some 57% of October respondents still plan an international trip in the next 12 months, in line with 2024 and 2025 levels. That means the U.S. is losing share to competitors, not to travelers staying home — a distribution problem for every U.S. seller of inbound travel, from airlines and hotels to tour operators and attractions.

How Bad Is the Advocacy Slide?

Word-of-mouth metrics, a leading indicator of future bookings, are eroding. The share of surveyed travelers who would recommend the U.S. fell from 64% in 2024 to 53% year to date in 2026. Those who would actively discourage a U.S. visit rose from 7% to 16%.

Brand USA's own capacity to counter the trend is constrained: its budget to win back demand is shrinking, even as the competitive gap narrows.

Is the Demand Lost or Deferred?

Brand USA is betting the shortfall is deferred rather than gone. Nearly 60% of travelers who chose another destination this year said they expect to visit the U.S. within five years — a claim that, if borne out, would preserve the demand base but delay the revenue.

Hard arrivals data underscores the pressure. Overseas visitation reached 24.1 million through September, down nearly 6% year over year. Tourism Economics forecasts 67.8 million international visitors in 2026, more than 2 million below its June projection — a downgrade that tracks directly with the sentiment deterioration in Brand USA's monthly polling.

For travel sellers, the immediate consequence is a smaller U.S. share of a stable international travel pie, with Japan capturing the marginal long-haul traveler. The recovery case rests on a five-year horizon, and on a marketing budget moving in the wrong direction.