Tui's booked revenue in the package tour business came in 5% below last summer, the company announced in Hanover, citing preliminary figures, as the war in Iran and a persistent shift to last-minute bookings squeezed the group's core product.

For the fiscal year ending in September, CEO Sebastian Ebel now expects adjusted operating profit between €1.2 and €1.3 billion on a currency-adjusted basis. That range matches the midpoint of the previous target corridor. A year earlier, the figure stood at just over €1.4 billion — implying a decline of roughly 7–14%.

Why is Tui still not forecasting revenue?

Although the 2025/26 fiscal year is nearly over, Ebel has still not issued a revenue forecast. He scrapped the original target in April after war broke out in the Persian Gulf, and cut his profit target at the same time.

The impact was concrete. Two ships operated by the cruise line Tui Cruises were stranded when the conflict erupted, and large numbers of customers postponed vacation bookings. Tui management responded by cutting its travel offerings by 5%.

What do the booking curves show?

The monthly numbers track a slow stabilization rather than a recovery:

• August revenue from booked package tours ran 6% below the prior year
• In recent weeks, the rate of decline has eased somewhat
• Bookings for the upcoming winter season are currently down 7%
• Booking momentum has improved over the past four weeks

Early trends for winter indicate customers are still booking later than they historically did, according to the company, given geopolitical and economic uncertainty. The executive board is therefore keeping flexibility to adjust offerings on short notice — a posture that shifts inventory risk further into the season.

Where is Tui still making money?

The group's own hotels and cruise ships delivered the bright spots. Occupancy at hotel brands such as Riu and Tui Blue declined slightly in the July–September quarter, but Tui says it charged higher prices, protecting rate integrity even as volumes softened.

Ships operated by Tui Cruises, Marella and Hapag-Lloyd were as fully booked as a year earlier — despite higher prices. That pricing power in the owned-hotel and cruise segments contrasts with the discounting pressure typically implied by late, short-notice package bookings.

Tui plans to publish final figures for the 2025/26 fiscal year on December 9, as scheduled. Until then, the open question for sellers of Tui inventory is whether the improving four-week booking momentum carries into a winter season that still trails last year by 7%.