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Skift's Rafat Ali: AI Agents Are Dissolving the Travel Funnel

Skift's Rafat Ali says the funnel question — who owns the customer when AI agents book travel — dominated the Skift Global Forum and may be too neat. CEOs of Booking, Expedia, Airbnb and Uber weighed in.

The Travel Distribution Funnel Is Coming Apart
The Travel Distribution Funnel Is Coming ApartAI-generated

Itinerary

  1. Rafat Ali's column followed Skift Global Forum conversations with Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, Sierra CEO Bret Taylor, Booking Holdings CEO Glenn Fogel, Expedia Group CEO Ariane Gorin, and Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky.
  2. Travel companies have spent billions to intercept traveler intent early, a position threatened when travelers state intent to AI assistants instead of search boxes.
  3. Ali argues the question of who owns the customer in the AI-agent era may be 'too neat,' since intent capture, booking execution, and payment relationships may fragment across different parties.

The question that dominated last week's Skift Global Forum was blunt: who owns the customer when AI agents become a normal part of travel? Rafat Ali, Skift's founder, posed it directly to Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, Sierra CEO Bret Taylor, Booking Holdings CEO Glenn Fogel, Expedia Group CEO Ariane Gorin, and Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky. His conclusion, laid out in his "Connecting the Dots" column: the question itself may be too neat.

The reason sits in the structure of travel distribution as it has operated for most of the online travel era. A traveler made intent visible by typing into a search box. Google often saw that intent before any travel company did. Airlines, hotels, and OTAs then competed for the click and handled the booking downstream.

That path was never as clean as the funnel diagram suggested, Ali writes. But seeing intent early was valuable, and travel companies spent billions of dollars to get in front of it. Search marketing, metasearch bids, and SEO budgets all rested on one assumption: the traveler's first declaration of intent happened in a box a distributor could buy placement against.

The arrival of ChatGPT changed the promise. Instead of repeatedly declaring the same intent across search engines and travel sites, a traveler could simply tell an assistant what they wanted.

For sellers of travel, that shift cuts at the economics of demand acquisition. If the assistant absorbs the intent statement, the paid-placement layer that Google built and OTAs funded loses its position at the top of the funnel. The competitors for the booking become whoever the agent queries, ranks, or books through — a distribution position that no current commission structure was designed for.

The CEO lineup at the forum signals which companies expect to contest that position. Booking Holdings and Expedia Group together control the bulk of Western OTA volume, and both have staked claims on AI-driven planning and booking. Airbnb's Chesky has framed the company's build-out around serving travelers directly rather than feeding intermediated demand. Uber's Khosrowshahi has positioned the company's transaction engine as a natural endpoint for AI-planned trips. Sierra's Bret Taylor, whose company builds conversational AI agents for enterprises, represents the software layer that could sit between travelers and every supplier.

Ali's skepticism about "who owns the customer" as a framing is itself a signal for the trade. Ownership may fragment rather than concentrate: the party that hears the intent, the party that executes the booking, and the party that holds the payment relationship could differ on a single trip. Suppliers that have spent two decades paying for early visibility would face a market where that spend no longer guarantees position.

The column does not project timelines or attach numbers to the shift. What it does establish is that the CEOs steering the largest booking platforms and the AI vendors building the agent layer are already arguing over the same seam in the funnel — and that the argument moved from conference speculation to boardroom priority the moment travelers began stating intent to assistants instead of search boxes.

via Skift (Source)

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Tom Whitfield

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Staff writer covering media and advertising at Travel Trade Desk.

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