Skift Advisory Forecasts Discovery Travelers at 45% of Trips by 2036

Travelers driven by discovery will account for 45% of trips and 48% of global travel spending by 2036, according to Skift Advisory estimates presented at the Skift Aviation Forum. The forecast gives travel sellers a concrete yardstick for where product investment should concentrate over the next decade.

Ashab Rizvi, Senior Associate at Skift Advisory, argued that companies make better decisions about whom to target and what to build when they understand why customers travel. Combining travelers' values and intentions with demographic and behavioral data, he said, reveals important differences in what customers want from the same journey.

The numbers behind the projection: distinction-oriented travelers — those seeking recognition and status — are projected to represent 33% of trips and 34% of spending by 2036. The remainder falls to travelers oriented around togetherness, prioritizing shared experiences. These are forecasts, not measured results, and Skift Advisory presents them as a starting point for evaluating future customer propositions rather than settled market sizing.

Why motivation-based segmentation matters for sellers

Rizvi's core proposal is deceptively simple: add motivations to segmentation. Most travel companies segment on demographics and behavior — age, income, booking channel, frequency. Those data points explain who buys and how, but not why, which limits how accurately a seller can predict product fit or willingness to pay.

The framework combines four inputs: intentions, behavior, demographics, and values. For travel executives, the immediate application is diagnostic. It creates an opportunity to assess whether existing customer segments adequately explain purchasing decisions — or whether two customers who look identical on paper want fundamentally different products.

The revenue logic follows directly. Better-targeted segments reduce wasted marketing spend and sharpen product development choices.

Three orientations, three product strategies

Skift Advisory's framework identifies three orientations that drive customer decisions, each implying a distinct product and packaging approach:

• Discovery — travelers oriented toward exploration and new experiences; test products built around novelty and discovery
• Distinction — travelers seeking recognition and status; test experiences built around exclusivity and prestige
• Togetherness — travelers prioritizing shared experiences; test products built around group connection

The practical instruction for operators, DMOs, and platforms is to test experiences against each orientation rather than market one catalog to all three. A bundled city break sold as exploration, recognition, or family connection is effectively three different products.

What to watch

Two questions will determine whether the framework shifts real revenue. First, how traveler motivations reshape product development — differences in what travelers value could influence how companies design, market, and package experiences for distinct customer segments. Second, where values-based segmentation exposes underserved needs, giving early movers a path to more differentiated products and services.

For now, the 45% and 33% figures are projections that sellers should test against their own booking data — but the direction of travel is clear: motivation, not just demographics, is becoming the segmentation variable to watch.

Tom Whitfield