Mantis Holds Gulf Rates as War Shrinks Demand to Domestic Guests

Mantis Collection's 104-villa Hawar Resort in Bahrain shut completely at the peak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, and the Accor-backed brand is now filling its Gulf properties with domestic guests alone while refusing to discount to chase volume.

The group's Gamra Mountain Resort in Al Baha, Saudi Arabia, is trading at roughly 30% occupancy three months after opening, with a guest base that CEO Craig Erasmus confirmed is 100% domestic. Bahrain's market-wide numbers tell the same story: occupancy fell 7.3 points to 41.7% in September, and RevPAR (revenue per available room) dropped 10.4%, according to CoStar data.

"It would be naive to say the U.S.-Iran war hasn't had an impact," Erasmus said. "Although the trends are positive, you need stability to return for a more diverse guest mix [to come back]. The region is very focused on the domestic market now."

What has the conflict changed for sellers?

Hawar, which opened last year as Mantis' first Gulf property, closed entirely at times during the war's peak, then recovered quickly. It now attracts mainly Bahraini guests plus some Saudi business, with regional international visitors yet to return.

The demand shock has compressed booking windows across the portfolio. Mantis is holding rate rather than discounting — a deliberate position from a young brand that argues it should not buy occupancy on price. The contrast with its home market is stark: across Africa, where Mantis operates 17 properties, the brand often has visibility on bookings 12 months out.

The conflict has also made it harder to build the winter low season at Al Baha, squeezing the revenue runway for a resort that depends on cooler-month domestic travel.

Are the openings still on schedule?

Yes. The war disrupted procurement of furniture, fixtures and equipment, but Erasmus said construction timelines hold:

• Saij Mountain Lodge in Ras Al Khaimah, UAE: March 2027
• Basiqat by Mantis, a 220-key property near Riyadh: mid-2027
• Three more committed Saudi properties beyond those already announced
• A new project in a UAE emirate, to be announced

Mantis is deliberately skipping Dubai and Abu Dhabi entirely, targeting less-served mountain and nature destinations instead.

Why the circuit strategy matters

The Gulf build-out copies the playbook Mantis ran across its 17 African properties: multi-property "circuits" that move guests between destinations, paired with an in-house tour operator that controls the itinerary and the margin. A Saudi tour operator launch is planned for next year, extending that distribution model to the Kingdom.

For sellers of travel, the model concentrates booking power inside the brand rather than across third-party channels. If the circuit concept works in Saudi Arabia, Mantis captures package revenue that would otherwise sit with external operators.

Mantis Collection has been 50% owned by Accor since 2018, giving the Gulf push the backing of one of the world's largest hotel groups.

The long-term bet rests on international travelers returning. Until stability returns to the region, the brand's Gulf revenue will run almost entirely on domestic wallets — a narrow base that Erasmus himself frames as temporary. The circuit strategy, the tour operator launch and the 2027 openings are all built on the assumption that cross-border demand comes back.