Hyatt Raises 2026 RevPAR Outlook as All-Inclusives Lag

By Tom Whitfield

Hyatt raised its full-year 2026 RevPAR growth forecast to 5%-5.5%, above the 4.7% Wall Street analyst average, after third-quarter U.S. RevPAR rose 8.2%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 19% to $295 million, though Hyatt excluded hotels sold last year from that comparison.

The new range, up from 3.5%-4.5% in July, puts management ahead of the consensus figure cited by Barclays analysts. Both the guidance and the consensus remain forecasts rather than booked results.

The earnings picture favors sellers of premium leisure inventory, but it does not show a broad recovery across every Hyatt package. Measured growth is strong in the United States and parts of Asia, while all-inclusive net package RevPAR fell 2.5%. The near-term revenue signal is stronger premium-leisure pricing, not uniform growth across the portfolio.

What is driving Hyatt's growth?

CEO Mark Hoplamazian said on Thursday's earnings call: "Luxury leisure has just remained the juggernaut of growth for us." Executives linked the 8.2% U.S. RevPAR increase to the resilience of "premium travelers." The FIFA World Cup supplied about 50 basis points of that gain.

Hyatt's growth now runs through affluent vacationers, which makes the company sensitive to the wealth effect. A stock-market decline could weaken the demand behind this quarter's gains. For travel sellers, that shift favors premium-room and high-end leisure inventory, but concentrates risk in one spending pocket. Hyatt is growing fastest where affluent leisure spending is strongest.

How did the Middle East shock travel?

The U.S.-Iran war cut international inbound travel to Hyatt's Middle East hotels by 40%, yet regional RevPAR declined only about 3%. Domestic demand absorbed much of the shock, and Hyatt estimates roughly $10 million in fees are at risk this year.

For sellers, the 3% RevPAR decline against a 40% inbound fall shows that local demand partly protected Hyatt's revenue. The fee risk remains material. Domestic guests softened the shock without removing Hyatt's regional fee exposure.

Which international markets grew fastest?

RevPAR grew 4.3% in Europe, more than 10% in Asia Pacific excluding China and 2.1% in China. Asia Pacific excluding China delivered the strongest measured gain of those three regions, while China recorded the slowest.

For agencies and platforms, those figures support putting more selling attention on Asia Pacific excluding China, where RevPAR momentum is strongest. China grew, but more slowly than both Europe and Asia Pacific excluding China. Asia Pacific excluding China led growth among the three regions Hyatt broke out.

Why did all-inclusives fall behind?

Net package RevPAR across Hyatt's all-inclusive portfolio fell 2.5%. In Cancún, demand dropped more than 10%, which Hyatt tied to airline capacity cuts. Sargassum seaweed hurt demand on the Riviera Maya. Impression Isla Mujeres by Secrets, an all-inclusive resort available through Hyatt, gives sellers a concrete example of that inventory.

These disruptions create two distinct risks for travel sellers: constrained flights can reduce package demand, while a local environmental problem can hurt a specific resort area. Hyatt identifies both causes, but its 2.5% segment decline means stronger premium demand does not guarantee all-inclusive growth. Sellers of all-inclusive packages face a weaker setup than sellers of premium leisure.

What should sellers watch next?

CFO Joan Bottarini said the 2027 booking pace for the all-inclusive segment was up in the high single digits. That is a forward bookings indicator, not a reported RevPAR result. Hoplamazian cautioned against reading too much into October indicators because of volatility and the U.S. midterms.

For sellers, the booking pace supports some 2027 all-inclusive demand, but October data may not settle the near-term picture. Hyatt also depends on affluent travelers, so a stock-market shock could reverse the premium-leisure momentum behind current results.

The next test for travel sellers is whether that high-single-digit 2027 booking pace converts into reported RevPAR and fees while U.S. premium-leisure demand holds.