Canadian return trips from the U.S. rose 6.8% in September — the sixth straight month of year-over-year growth — yet car trips still sat 31.1% below September 2024 and air trips 18.7% below, according to Statistics Canada figures released Tuesday. Six months of growth sounds like momentum until you check the baseline.

The recovery is real at the margin. Air return trips climbed 11.6% year over year in September; car trips rose 5.6%. But climbing out of an unusually soft 2025 isn't the same as getting back to normal, and the gap to 2024 remains the number sellers should price into their forecasts.

What do the regional numbers show?

Every market gauge repeats the same two-step pattern: up on last year, down on two years ago.

• Northern New England crossings — New Hampshire, Maine, Vermont — rose 6% year over year but fell 23% versus 2024.
• Whatcom County, Washington, logged 3% more southbound vehicles, yet volume sat 27% below September 2024.
• Hawaii's Canadian arrivals edged up 0.6% while remaining 4% under 2024.

For destinations and tour operators counting on Canadian shoulder-season demand, that's still a deep hole. A 6% rebound means little when the market has lost a quarter of its traffic.

Is business travel recovering faster than leisure?

Yes, by the bookings data. Corporate Traveller Canada reported cross-border air bookings up 3.9% year-to-date against 2024, and up 2.2% in September alone. Flight Centre Canada said U.S. leisure air bookings rose 5.7% — though its own framing concedes the leisure recovery is coming off an unusually soft 2025 base.

In plain terms: corporate desks are nearly whole again; leisure is climbing from a hole. Agencies with heavy leisure mix should read the 5.7% accordingly.

What about intent and demand signals?

Sentiment data complicates the recovery story. A Leger survey of 1,538 Canadian adults found 60% said they were less open to U.S. travel than at any point in the past year. Even more pointed for policymakers pitching a trade fix: 43% said resolving Canada-U.S. trade tensions would not change their likelihood of visiting.

The demand funnel looks better than the sentiment. FlightHub reported U.S. search demand up 15% year over year — despite fares jumping 17% in the same window. Searchers absorbing a double-digit fare increase and still searching suggests pent-up intent, not aversion. But search volume is a leading indicator, not revenue, and a 17% fare hike can suppress conversion even among willing bookers.

What's the takeaway for sellers of travel?

The measured facts are modest growth off a depressed base; the projections of a full Canadian comeback are not in these numbers. Cross-border sellers should treat the 2024 comparison — car down 31.1%, air down 18.7% — as the working baseline for 2026 planning, not the year-over-year prints.

One thing the data doesn't say: whether the sentiment gap closes as bookings recover, or the 60% who feel less open to U.S. travel simply spend elsewhere. The next tranche of Statistics Canada releases, plus fourth-quarter booking data from FlightHub and Corporate Traveller, will show whether September's pace holds through the winter booking window.