Analysts Say Royal Caribbean's $20 EPS Target for 2027 Is Too Low

Royal Caribbean Group expects 2027 adjusted earnings of at least $20 per share — and Wall Street thinks that number is too low. Analysts at Jefferies and William Blair raised their estimates and price targets after the company's third-quarter results, arguing management's final-year Perfecta target understates the momentum in the business.

The $20 figure is the endpoint of Perfecta, the multi-year earnings program Royal Caribbean has run since 2024. Management reiterated the target alongside Q3 results, and at least three sell-side shops treated it as a floor rather than a ceiling.

Why analysts see upside to the target

David Katz of Jefferies said the $20 handle looked conservative for three reasons. First, 2027 bookings have been pacing up in the high teens over the past 90 days. Second, the guidance embeds heavy fuel costs. Third, it includes no contribution from the company's planned investment in Sandals and Beaches Resorts.

Jefferies set its own 2027 estimate at $20.90 per share and raised its price target to $350 from $330, reiterating a buy rating. Katz said business momentum plus future growth from Sandals, additional land-based assets and new ship capacity all supported 2028 and beyond — along with the company's premium valuation compared to cruise peers.

The takeaway: the sell side is underwriting more than the company itself is promising.

What the quarter showed on spending and costs

Katz also flagged that onboard spending remained robust, driven by greater technology adoption plus continued strength in gaming and beverage. Onboard revenue is a key margin lever for cruise operators because it scales faster than ticket prices.

Sharon Zackfia of William Blair reiterated an outperform rating and called Royal Caribbean the best-in-class cruise operator. She noted the company still expects to grow earnings by roughly 15 percent this year and to meet its original January guidance — despite full-year fuel expenses running 15 percent higher than initially forecast.

William Blair raised its 2027 earnings estimate to $20.48 from $20.04 and forecast $23.39 for 2028, implying the growth story extends past the Perfecta finish line.

In plain terms: costs are up, and the earnings engine hasn't stalled.

Can Royal Caribbean deliver the fourth quarter?

Xian Siew of BNP Paribas said he viewed the results positively and kept a $392 price target on the stock — the highest of the three cited. Over the last couple of quarters, he explained, some investors had worried Royal Caribbean could not deliver the fourth-quarter yield acceleration implied by its guidance.

Those doubts now look less pressing. Siew noted Royal Caribbean tends to beat its guidance and said the company had "checked the box" on 2027 by reiterating its Perfecta targets.

For travel sellers, the read-through is straightforward: the largest operator in cruise is signaling demand strength well into 2027, with booking pacing in the high teens — a backdrop that supports pricing power on both ticket and onboard revenue.

The next test is the fourth quarter, where guidance implies yield (revenue per available berth) accelerating; if the pattern of guidance beats holds, expect the 2027 consensus — already drifting above $20 — to keep climbing.