AAA Forecasts 22 Million Americans Will Cruise in 2027

More than 22 million Americans are forecast to take a cruise in 2027, according to AAA. That's the headline number, and it's a projection — not a measured booking figure — from an organization with a commercial stake in travel sales through its network of travel advisors.

The forecast, reported by the Orlando Sentinel, points to sustained growth in a segment that has outperformed much of the travel industry since the pandemic. For sellers of travel, the takeaway is straightforward: cruise demand keeps building, and advisors who skipped the category during its 2020-2022 collapse are now looking at a market AAA expects to keep expanding.

What does the forecast actually say?

AAA puts the 2027 figure above 22 million American cruisers. To put that in context, the U.S. accounts for the largest share of global cruise passengers — meaning the projection implies continued industry-wide volume growth, not just a U.S. anomaly.

What the forecast doesn't say matters too. AAA hasn't published — at least in this report — the underlying assumptions: pricing trends, cabin capacity additions from major lines, or how it defines a "cruiser." Forecasts like this tend to extrapolate recent momentum, and cruise demand has been unusually strong for three straight years.

The caveat: projections of this kind have missed before, in both directions. Treat 22 million as a planning signal, not a guarantee.

Why it matters for distribution

Cruise growth flows through specific channels. AAA is itself one of them — it operates a large travel agency network, and its advisors sell cruise inventory directly. A bullish public forecast from AAA doubles as demand-generation for that channel.

The major cruise lines — Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian collectively dominate North American capacity — have also spent the past two years pushing direct bookings while advisors argue their share of the pie has held. A rising passenger count softens that fight: more total cruisers means more volume for both channels, at least in the near term.

For travel advisors, cruise remains one of the higher-commission categories in leisure travel, with lines paying agents on the base fare rather than the slashed-margin air-and-hotel bundles common elsewhere. Volume growth here is revenue growth, in plain terms.

What's not in the numbers

The forecast counts passengers, not spend. Cruise lines have been driving revenue through onboard spending — drink packages, shore excursions, specialty dining — rather than ticket price alone. So even if the 22 million figure lands, the revenue picture for operators and sellers depends heavily on per-guest spend, which this projection doesn't address.

Capacity is the other open question. New ships ordered in 2021-2023 will keep arriving through 2027, and whether demand absorbs that supply at current price points will determine whether the forecast translates into yield or into discounting.

The bottom line

AAA expects American cruising to keep growing through 2027 — a meaningful demand signal for advisors and operators alike, though one built on assumptions the report doesn't fully lay out. The next hard data point to watch is actual 2025 booking and occupancy reporting from the major lines, which will show whether the curve is bending as AAA expects.